Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The Carter Bounce

Annelena Lobb asked yesterday, "Will stocks rally with a new face in the White House?"
There are two relatively recent historical precedents for the current election, where a new president will take office amid a serious financial crisis. [New president] will confront ugly economic challenges like Franklin D. Roosevelt did after his 1932 victory and Ronald Reagan did in 1980.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied in Mr. Roosevelt's first year and fell slightly in Mr. Reagan's.
The article focused on economic situation leading up to elections. It may be instructive to look at another recent precedent, one with political similarities. In 1976, an unpopular Republican president ran against a Democratic outsider.

The markets fell in the run-up to the election but stabilized and even rallied when Mr. Carter's lead became apparent. They rallied again after the election, but the rally was short-lived. The Dow made a high of 1008 on Jan. 3rd, and it was downhill and then sideways for the rest of President Carter's term. Dow didn't reach 1000 again until after the 1980 presidential election.

1976
2008
Carter

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