Monday, March 23, 2009

Intentions and Results

On January 15, 2009 Chesley Burnett "Sully" Sullenberger III displays exceptional airmanship when he lands his A320 in the Hudson. All 155 people aboard US Airways Flight 1549 survive. This highly improbable outcome makes Mr. Sullenberger an instant celebrity.

Mr. Sullenberger's passengers are extremely lucky to have him as captain on that particular flight. Mr. Sullenberger's other business is airline safety and reliability. On February 8th he says on 60 Minutes: "My entire life up to that moment has been a preparation to handle that particular moment."

The preparation pays off. Mr. Sullenberger appears on TV, talks to President and President-Elect, lands a book-writing deal, receives keys to NCY, testifies before Congress. The incident creates good publicity for US Airways and for Mr. Sullenberger's consulting company, Safety Reliability Methods, Inc., whose website says, quite justifiably, "by choosing SRM, you get proven performance [and] uniquely qualified experts." This publicity is especially timely as Mr. Sullenberger turns 60 in less than two years. 60 is mandatory retirement age for US airline pilots.

Paradoxically, successful ditching in the Hudson appears to be the most desirable outcome for a flight from LGA to CLT.

Find the Outlier
Landing at Charlotte (CLT):
Landing at destination on schedule. No blood, no glory. (30,000 of these happen per day)
Return to LaGuardia (LGA):
Passengers wait for next flight. Minor inconvenience. (dozens of these happen per year)
Landing at Teterboro (TEB):
Local-news-worthy. TEB has no scheduled flights or public transportation. Passengers need to get to another airport before they can continue on their way.
Landing off-airport on land:
National-news-worthy. Dense urban areas around accident site make injuries and fatalities likely. Damage to aircraft and property on the ground. No brownie points for crew.
Landing off-airport on water:
National phenomenon, if you can pull it off.

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